Canberra, 6 August 1975
O.CH251452 SECRET ROUTINE
Portugal: Political Considerations
We understand the obscurities of the present constantly-shifting political situation and your problems in identifying developments and personnel changes upon which you can hazard even the most qualified and partial forecasts of future trends. This said, however, it would be very helpful to us to have your own and Jakarta’s thoughts on the sort of political developments in Lisbon which might precipitate:
- A Governmental decision to grant immediate independence to Portuguese Timor and disclaim any further responsibilities for its political future, regardless of the consequences;
- A decision by the Indonesian Government that the Portuguese Government had lurched so far to the left that, whether or not it retained control of Portuguese Timor in the short term, the territory would be used as a base for the sort of interference in the affairs of neighbouring countries that so concerns the Indonesian Government.1
[NAA: A10463, 801/13/1111, xi]
- 1 Lisbon replied on 14 August, that is, after the UDT ‘show of force’, that since the decolonisation process had run into difficulties Timor had come into greater prominence, and the Santos scheme was likely to be bypassed, since co-operation between the parties was necessary to make the plan workable. Regardless of the nature of government in Lisbon, the speed of decolonisation was likely to quicken, but neither military faction was likely to participate in Indonesian plans. All saw decolonisation ‘basically in terms of independence’ and were ‘very sensitive to any charge of neocolonialism’ (Cablegram LB191). Jakarta had responded on 8 August that while the political complexion of government in Lisbon had no bearing on Indonesia’s ‘basic decision’ for integration, it would affect consideration of how and when integration should occur. At that time ‘the Indonesians seem to be in no hurry and there is no Presidential decision on the methods to be used’. Indonesia seemed content with elections for a Constituent Assembly in October 1976 and the Portuguese commitment to remain at least until October 1978. Concern would develop if Lisbon were to grant immediate independence or if communist influence in Timor were to increase.