Taipei, 6 March 1972
137. Confidential
Taiwan: Reaction to Nixon and Green Visits
The main ROC reaction was one of essential helplessness in the face of events happening or to happen elsewhere. Marshall Green’s assurances that US policy towards Taiwan (as distinct from the PRC) remains unchanged were accepted with reasonable grace, but taken with grains of salt which were obviously bitter. The ROC remains deeply uneasy about the speed at which its international position will be further eroded. It not1 only suspects that other countries will now move faster towards Peking but fears that the US itself will make further moves damaging to it, particularly if President Nixon sees electora2 in doing so. Officials say privately that further isolation would be ‘unfair’ to a country which remains willing to play a constructive role, but sadly realise that emotional arguments will cut little ice at this stage. Some realise that past and continuing rigidity of policies particularly in regard to the ROC’s policy of ‘recovery of the Mainland’ have contributed towards Taiwan’s present problems. They believe that, even now, President Chiang’s bitterness about recent events, and the influence of hardliners will inhibit what they see as desirable changes, for some time to come at least.
2. As far as one can judge, unease is wide and deep, although many people are not sure what specific adverse consequences will follow and it is a case of business as usual. A feeling of crisis has quite clearly brought Taiwanese and Mainlanders closer together, at least temporarily—the anniversary of the 1947 Taiwanese uprising3 against the KMT passed without the normal small incidents or customary special security precautions. Taiwanese here, as well as liberal Mainlanders, tend to see the need as being a ’separate’ Taiwan rather than an independent Taiwan. But they are unsure how to achieve this goal.
3. It is, I am sure, no coincidence that the National Assembly and central committee of the KMT are meeting at this time. Their proceedings, of which the most important are nomination and election of Presidential and Vice–Presidential candidates for election later this month, and enlargement of the legislative Yuan, are publicised, provoke discussion and help to divert attention from other problems. Almost everyone agrees that President Chiang will be re–elected. To do otherwise would add to present uncertainties. But there is interest in whether the Vice–President will be changed. And it seems almost certain that Parliament will be enlarged by addition of more representatives at least from ‘occupational groups’. Changes to give ‘Taiwan province’ more regional representation are more questionable, carrying as they would wider implications for the status of Taiwan. Even though there is fairly general scepticism whether changes will be meaningful, there is probably some popular satisfaction in the belief that some moves to make the Government more representative are likely. If this question is well handled, the Government will gain needed credit at a useful time.
4. The economy is still behaving well. (Exports were for example up considerably in January.) The greatest governmental worry in this regard is that lack of confidence has seriously affected domestic investment. (Foreign businessmen have held very steady and much new US investment is still corning in.) ROC officials hope Green’s public stress on US confidence in the ROC economy and his Government’s policy of promoting investment in Taiwan will help considerably. (This passage, in his statement was included at ROC request.) They see this statement as of political as well as economic significance since pragmatic Chinese businessmen will believe the US interest will remain where its money is.
5. ROC statements and conversations relevant to Green’s visit have been reported separately. Special ROC concerns were in regard to the military rundown on Taiwan, the absence of reference to either the US treaty commitment or to the ROC Government itself in the joint communique, and to the implications of what was said for the international status of Taiwan. Green’s visit and other US statements have done something to reassure the ROC in regard to the fundamentals of defence and the economy in the short term. However, it remains very suspicious of when and how the next US blow at its position will fall and it believes that US policies over recent months have, no matter what the US now does, contributed to its increasing international isolation and are likely to continue to do so.
6. Canberra—please repeat as requested.
Dunn
[NAA: A1838, 3107/401161/4, vi]
1 The original here contains an extra ‘not’.
2 Text appears to be missing here.
3 In February 1947, Formosans rose in protest against the heavy–handed nature of KMT rule, which prompted the declaration of martial law and large–scale massacres of civilians.