Cablegram 514 LONDON, 4 July 1940, 9.57 p.m.
IMMEDIATE FOR THE PRIME MINISTER MOST SECRET PERSONAL FOR HIMSELF
Appreciation of Middle East in Z.168 [1] in my view is mere
statement of obvious facts within the knowledge of any reasonably
competent person. It stresses the importance of our position in
the Middle East and in paragraph 8 shows what that position hinges
on. In subsequent paragraphs it indicates the possibility of our
not being able to maintain our position in various vital areas
referred to in paragraph 2 and in paragraph 9 it states the
necessity of strengthening our forces in the Middle East but
indicates little prospect of its being possible to do this for a
considerable time. It, however, gives no indication of what the
plan would be in the event of our having to retire from any of the
vital points mentioned. For example, paragraph 4 shows that we
have forces in Egypt sufficient only to cope with Italy so long as
we retain a fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean. That Alexandria
might be rendered untenable as fleet base if Italy reinforced in
the air by Germany. In the event of these reinforcements being
provided Alexandria becoming untenable and Egypt having to be
evacuated no indication is given as to where it is contemplated
that forces now in Egypt would be withdrawn.
This is only one example but there are many others that will occur
to you.
The present arrangement is that I am to discuss this appreciation
as well as the Far Eastern questions raised in Dominions Office
telegram No. 228 [2] with Chiefs of Staff Committee.
Please send me any specific points you would desire me to raise in
this discussion.
BRUCE
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1 Document:8.
2 Documents on Australian Foreign Policy 1937-49, vol. III,
Document 459.
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[AA: A981, WAR 57, i]
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